{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":8,"sheets":["Summary","Globals","EV of Far Future","GiveDirectly","THL","Cage-Free","AI Safety","AI Targeted Values Spreading"],"not_rendered":{"charts":0,"images":0,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":36,"comments":0,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":3,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

{"sheet":"Summary","index":0,"n_rows":25,"n_cols":11,"rows_kept":25,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Total utility",null,null,null,null,null,"Utility from direct effects only"]
[null,"Pareto","Log-normal","Ratio vs. GD",null,null,null,"Mean ","Variance","Pareto","Log-normal"]
["GiveDirectly",{"$f":"GiveDirectly!B30","v":-1021738259900382.6},{"$f":"GiveDirectly!B31","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"C3/$C$3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,"GiveDirectly",{"$f":"GiveDirectly!G3","v":1},{"$f":"GiveDirectly!H3","v":4.0000000000000008E-2},{"$f":"GiveDirectly!G4","v":0.85832741114212496},{"$f":"GiveDirectly!G5","v":"disabled"}]
["THL",{"$f":"THL!B34","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"THL!B35","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"C4/C3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,"AMF",{"$f":"D17","v":11.224972160321824},{"$f":"E17","v":7.4864535847752101E-2},{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,H4:I4)","v":7.6651731591110082},{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_global_poverty,sigma_global_poverty,H4:I4)","v":7.68136697438384}]
["Cage-Free",{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!B23","v":1.7155923138575062E+24},{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!B24","v":122694.70790374537},{"$f":"C5/C3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,"THL",{"$f":"THL!I5","v":5429.9171264394072},{"$f":"THL!J5","v":0.49504262895320128},{"$f":"THL!I6","v":396.49368154968971},{"$f":"THL!I7","v":194.83133807235006}]
["AI Safety",{"$f":"'AI Safety'!B11","v":6.3112967095697664E+27},{"$f":"'AI Safety'!B12","v":213917.63204134765},{"$f":"C6/$C$3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,"Cage-free Campaigns",{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!I5","v":88741.196746494257},{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!J5","v":0.31528753718843733},{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!I6","v":16679.269175199799},{"$f":"'Cage-Free'!I7","v":2531.88913733256}]
["AI Targeted Values Spreading",{"$f":"'AI Targeted Values Spreading'!B23","v":7.21322996525908E+36},{"$f":"'AI Targeted Values Spreading'!B24","v":25902525.57153099},{"$f":"C7/$C$3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[]
[]
["All Cause Areas"]
["Cause/Org","Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2","Pareto","Log-normal","Notes"]
["GiveDirectly",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B3","v":-1021738259900382.6},{"$f":"C3","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
["THL",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B4","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"C4","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
["Cage-Free Campaigns*",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"J6","v":16679.269175199799},{"$f":"K6","v":2531.88913733256}]
["AI Safety",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B6","v":6.3112967095697664E+27},{"$f":"C6","v":213917.63204134765}]
["AI Targeted Values Spreading",null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B7","v":7.21322996525908E+36},{"$f":"C7","v":25902525.57153099}]
["AMF*",9,14,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B17,C17)","v":11.224972160321824},{"$f":"LogVariance(B17,C17)","v":7.4864535847752101E-2},{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,$D17:$E17)","v":7.6651731591110082},{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_global_poverty,sigma_global_poverty,$D17:$E17)","v":7.68136697438384}]
["Deworming*",6,30,13.416407864998737,0.27270459618181209,3.7274882658620698,{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_global_poverty,sigma_global_poverty,$D18:$E18)","v":4.4094745822667356}]
["Criminal Justice*",0.5,15,2.7386127875258306,0.57630191965469357,0.60816760992752539,{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_policy,sigma_policy,$D19:$E19)","v":1.0908863363038546},"different grants estimated at $30 and $300 per prison-year averted; see http://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/justleadershipusa-close-rikers-campaign#Direct_impact and http://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/pew-public-safety-performance-project#Cost_effectiveness"]
["Immigration*",2,25,7.0710678118654755,0.42796171550924683,1.3899606988089097,{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_policy,sigma_policy,$D20:$E20)","v":2.1388077929344163}]
["Land Use Reform*",0.1,10,1,0.78030414607237897,0.32990094699021733,{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_policy,sigma_policy,$D21:$E21)","v":0.62405286763824308}]
["Macroeconomic Policy*",1,100,10,0.78030414607237897,0.91744602369328643,{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_policy,sigma_policy,$D22:$E22)","v":1.6372722236599835}]
["Biosecurity",null,null,{"$f":"'AI Safety'!H26/10","v":9.7766637805357065E+38},{"$f":"'AI Safety'!I26","v":5.2940810392801163},{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(1,alpha,$D23:$E23)","v":6.3112967095697741E+26},{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,$D23:$E23)","v":171474.9893022576}]
["Geoengineering",null,null,{"$f":"D23","v":9.7766637805357065E+38},{"$f":"E23","v":5.2940810392801163},{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,$D24:$E24)","v":6.3112967095697288E+26},{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,$D24:$E24)","v":171474.9893022576}]
["*includes direct effects only"]

{"sheet":"Globals","index":1,"n_rows":48,"n_cols":16,"rows_kept":48,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Enable calculations?",null,"Prior (log-normal)",null,null,null,null,null,null,"Prior (Pareto)"]
[0,"0 for false, 1 for true",null,"policy","global poverty","factory farming","far future"]
["For detailed explanations of everything, see http://mdickens.me/2016/05/17/quantifying_far_future_effects/",null,"mu",0.1,0.1,1,10,"mu","center of distribution (median)",null,"median",0.1]
[null,null,"sigma",{"$f":"sigma_global_poverty","v":0.75},0.75,{"$f":"sigma_global_poverty","v":0.75},{"$f":"sigma_global_poverty","v":0.75},"sigma","scale (logarithmic base 10); this corresponds to standard deviation, not variance",null,"alpha",1.5]
[null,null,"log-normal prior is parameterized by Y = mu*10^(sigma*X) for standard normal R.V. X",null,null,null,"TODO: maybe far future sigma should be bigger"]
[]
["Far future outcome probabilities",null,null,"Outcomes in a column are conditional on outcomes to the left, e.g. P(we reduce WAS on balance) = D8*B8. I explain my reasoning here: http://mdickens.me/2016/04/17/preventing_human_extinction,_now_with_numbers!/",null,null,null,null,null,"Color guide",null,"Basic facts"]
["stay on earth",0.2,"we reduce WAS on balance",0.7,"WAS = wild animal suffering",null,null,null,null,"final result",null,"factory farmed animals",20000000000]
["fill universe with biology",0.4,"society doesn't care about animals",0.8,"we have factory farming",0.3,null,null,null,"intermediate result",null,"interest rate",0.05]
[null,null,null,"not mutually exclusive so don't need to sum to 1","we spread WAS",0.4,null,null,null,"utility estimate"]
[null,null,null,null,"we make suffering simulations",0.3,null,null,null,"needs manual re-calculation"]
["fill universe with computers",0.4,"hedonium",0.05,"maximally happy beings",null,null,null,null,"ignore these (no color)"]
[null,null,"ems",0.3,"computer emulations of human-like brains",null,null,null,null,"user input"]
[null,null,"paperclip",0.64,"computers that don't do anything useful",null,null,null,null,"user input"]
[null,null,"dolorium",0.01,"maximally unhappy beings",null,null,null,null,"user input"]
[null,null,null,"should sum to 1"]
[]
["Utility for different types of beings",null,null,"Note: All CI's here have zero variance because individual well-being shouldn't factor in to prior estimates of good done."]
[null,"Well-being, absolute value (80% CI)",null,"Sentience adjustment (80% CI)"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Low CI","High CI","Sign","Mu1","Sigma^2_1","Mu2","Sigma^2_2","Mu","Sigma^2","Notes"]
["utility per wealthy human",1,{"$f":"B21","v":1},1,1,1,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B21,C21)","v":1},{"$f":"LogVariance(B21,C21)","v":0},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(D21,E21)","v":1},{"$f":"LogVariance(D21,E21)","v":0},{"$f":"G21*I21","v":1},{"$f":"H21+J21","v":0},"centered around 1 by definition"]
["utility per developing-world human",0.6,{"$f":"B22","v":0.6},1,1,1,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B22,C22)","v":0.6},{"$f":"LogVariance(B22,C22)","v":0},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(D22,E22)","v":1},{"$f":"LogVariance(D22,E22)","v":0},{"$f":"G22*I22","v":0.6},{"$f":"H22+J22","v":0},"extremely poor people's lives are about half as good as those in the developed world according to world happiness surveys"]
["utility per factory farmed animal",6,6,0.3,{"$f":"D23","v":0.3},-1,6,0,0.3,0,{"$f":"G23*I23","v":1.7999999999999998},{"$f":"H23+J23","v":0},"(1) does not include fish/shellfish; (2) I am willing to trade maybe 5 years normal life vs. 1 year on factory farm, and extremely poor people's lives are about half as good as those in the developed world according to world happiness surveys"]
["utility per cage removed",1,1,{"$f":"D23","v":0.3},{"$f":"D24","v":0.3},1,1,0,0.3,0,0.3,0]
["utility per wild vertebrate",2,2,0.2,0.2,-1,2,0,0.2,0,0.4,0]
["utility per insect",4,4,0.01,0.01,-1,4,0,0.01,0,0.04,0," "]
["utility per hedonium",1000,1000,{"$f":"D22","v":1},1,1,1000,0,1,0,1000,0,"for same energy requirements as human brain"]
["utility per em",1,1,1,1,1,1,0,1,0,1,0]
["utility per paperclip",0.1,0.1,1,1,-1,0.1,0,1,0,0.1,0]
["utility per dolorium",{"$f":"B27","v":1000},{"$f":"C27","v":1000},1,1,-1,1000,0,1,0,1000,0]
[]
[]
["Size of far future (80% CI)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Size of far future (mean/variance)"]
["Computronium condition",null,null,null,"Biological condition"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Notes",null,"Low CI","High CI","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)"]
["accessible stars",100000000000,100000000000000,"[3]","accessible stars",10000000000,100000000000000,"[3]",null,{"$f":"A36","v":"accessible stars"},{"$f":"SQRT(B36*C36)","v":3162277660168.3794},{"$f":"LogVariance(B36,C36)","v":1.1704562191085683},null,{"$f":"E36","v":"accessible stars"},{"$f":"SQRT(F36*G36)","v":1000000000000},{"$f":"LogVariance(F36,G36)","v":1.5606082921447579}]
["years of future",100000000000,1000000000000,"[2]","years of future",100000000000,1000000000000,"[2]",null,{"$f":"A37","v":"years of future"},{"$f":"SQRT(B37*C37)","v":316227766016.83789},{"$f":"LogVariance(B37,C37)","v":0.39015207303618948},null,{"$f":"E37","v":"years of future"},{"$f":"SQRT(F37*G37)","v":316227766016.83789},{"$f":"LogVariance(F37,G37)","v":0.39015207303618948}]
["usable wattage",1E+20,1.0000000000000001E+25,"[3]","humans per star",10000000000,1000000000000,null,null,"usable wattage",3.1622776601683796E+22,1.9507603651809475,null,"humans per star",100000000000,0.78030414607237897]
["brains per watt",0.1,0.1,"[3]","factory farmed animals per star",10000000000,1000000000000,null,null,{"$f":"A39","v":"brains per watt"},0.1,0,null,"factory farmed animals per star",100000000000,0.78030414607237897]
[null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrates per star",10000000000000,1E+16,"[1]; assumes 1-10 planets per star",null,null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrates per star",316227766016837.94,1.1704562191085683]
[null,null,null,null,"insects per star",1E+17,1E+21,"[1]",null,null,null,null,null,"insects per star",1E+19,1.5606082921447579]
[null,null,null,null,"simulations per insect",1E-3,1,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"E42","v":"simulations per insect"},{"$f":"SQRT(F42*G42)","v":3.1622776601683791E-2},1.1704562191085683]
[]
[]
["Sources"]
[1,"Tomasik, \"How Many Wild Animals Are There?\"","http://reducing-suffering.org/how-many-wild-animals-are-there/"]
[2,"Wikipedia, \"Timeline of the Far Future\"","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future"]
[3,"Bradbury, \"Matrioshka Brains\"","https://www.gwern.net/docs/1999-bradbury-matrioshkabrains.pdf"]

{"sheet":"EV of Far Future","index":2,"n_rows":35,"n_cols":15,"rows_kept":35,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Computronium Condition",null,null,null,null,"Biological Condition",null,null,null,null,"Results","TODO: this manually categorizes conditions as positive or negative, that should happen automatically"]
[null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)","Notes",null,null,"P-weighted utility estimate (adj. by probability)","Sigma^2",null,"Probability (used in P-weighted utility estimate)"]
["accessible stars",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A3,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,2,FALSE)","v":3162277660168.3794},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A3,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,3,FALSE)","v":1.1704562191085683},null,null,"accessible stars",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F3,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":1000000000000},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F3,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":1.5606082921447579},null,null,"human weighted utility",{"$f":"G10*O3","v":1.2649110640673517E+34},{"$f":"H10","v":2.7310645112533267},"P(humans exist)",{"$f":"p_biological","v":0.4}]
["years of future",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A4,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,2,FALSE)","v":316227766016.83789},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A4,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,3,FALSE)","v":0.39015207303618948},null,null,"years of future",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F4,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":316227766016.83789},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F4,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":0.39015207303618948},null,null,"hedonium weighted utility",{"$f":"B11*O4","v":6.3245553203367595E+46},{"$f":"C11","v":3.5113686573257055},"P(hedonium exists)",{"$f":"p_computronium*p_hedonium","v":2.0000000000000004E-2}]
["usable wattage",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A5,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,2,FALSE)","v":3.1622776601683796E+22},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A5,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,3,FALSE)","v":1.9507603651809475},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"em weighted utility",{"$f":"B16*O5","v":3.7947331922020553E+44},{"$f":"C16","v":3.5113686573257055},"P(ems exist)",{"$f":"p_computronium*p_ems","v":0.12}]
["brains per watt",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A6,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,2,FALSE)","v":0.1},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($A6,Globals!$J$36:$L$40,3,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"pos EV (buckets)",{"$f":"WriteArray(SumLognormDists(L3:M5))","v":{"$cut":{"chars":16952,"head":"0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.13635098543487E-322,2.86064008942082E-321,7.82352950189614E-320,2.11846949820747E-318,5.68639568578572E-317,1.51301249366545E-315,3.99059549783592E-314,1.0433324472202E-312,2.70394320981619E-311,6.94644010594307E-310,1.76895560463227E-308,4.46541176037963E-307,1.11736756867045E-305,2.77153658531431E-304,6.81451898459864E-303,1.6608861527923E-301,4.01268089437394E-300,9.60991438100703E-299,2.28136397995568E-297,5.36858512152124E-296,1.25232007297173E-294,2.89575029608221E-293,6.63738761782539E-292,1.5080772577042E-290,3.39656847252815E-289,7.58311367516393E-288,1.67820574353692E-286,3.6815721859586E-285,8.00593305265291E-284,1.72576295090038E-282,3.68757547915183E-281,7.81072456039602E-280,1.63995674136441E-278,3.41321907911449E-277,7.04184850557139E-276,1.44012427243931E-274,2.91947043203558E-273,5.86676982584578E-272,1.16865121604437E-270,2.30760631137015E-269,4.5167858295317E-268,8.76371602759129E-267,1.6855364708136E-265,3.21350597675842E-264,6.07311090765411E-263,1.1377176542422E-261,2.11275437254966E-260,3.8891508739597E-259,7.09662549104884E-258,1.28363142232467E-256,2.30154883377474E-255,4.09064220204129E-254,7.20699608473339E-253,1.25866053246326E-251,2.17898642733486E-250,3.73931511233738E-249,6.36093972133308E-248,1.07261093049367E-246,1.79289529412761E-245,2.97070450717936E-244,4.87928122966043E-243,7.9440901241208E-242,1.28210750027486E-240,2.05114676075606E-239,3.25282798181098E-238,5.11349195645254E-237,7.96831009631858E-236,1.23085557902705E-234,1.88469138253562E-233,2.86065654617939E-232,4.30411210943053E-231,6.41939155779687E-230,9.49066511989435E-229,1.39088741818603E-227,2.02059795906074E-226,2.90978231753178E-225,4.15368737946381E-224,5.87759811456185E-223,8.24439517560952E-222,1.14633249868025E-220,1.57999371864224E-219,2.15870415430957E-218,2.92364048114799E-217,3.92507482051674E-216,5.22354221862718E-215,6.89089349844723E-214,9.01113070565203E-213,1.16809032721234E-211,1.50095274089361E-210,1.91183816403757E-209,2.41395305282527E-208,3.02134392063936E-207,3.74856657095168E-206,4.61024579149739E-205,5.62052378421719E-204,6.79240272944722E-203,8.1369952929132E-202,9.66270615266211E-201,1.13743771428874E-199,1.32724376195127E-198,1.53521092760941E-197,1.76027199653617E-196,2.00071832453399E-195,2.25416986472696E-194,2.51757215763064E-193,2.78722411564927E-192,3.05883894658309E-191,3.32763871482049E-190,3.58848094230027E-189,3.83601344815717E-188,4.06485148528055E-187,4.26976933358801E-186,4.44589702724598E-185,4.58891197621194E-184,4.69521500093815E-183,4.76208078900544E-182,4.78777399809105E-181,4.77162410117319E-180,4.71405446765164E-179,4.61656391969309E-178,4.48166188538636E-177,4.31276106514849E-176,4.11403401943114E-175,3.89024208698113E-174,3.64654641224492E-173,3.38831151437109E-172,3.12091174873639E-171,2.84955023797298E-170,2.57909848185594E-169,2.3139630363124E-168,2.05798355098381E-167,1.81436425195147E-166,1.58563882406278E-165,1.37366673628575E-164,1.17965748074925E-163,1.00421803822554E-162,8.47418173780762E-162,7.08867899636641E-161,5.8780157675713E-160,4.83163594757403E-159,3.93691287294463E-158,3.17991616254469E-157,2.54609104156465E-156,2.02083431144533E-155,1.58995976354081E-154,1.240053265188E-153,9.58723689340079E-153,7.34760199763759E-152,5.58209176324444E-151,4.20385415723267E-150,3.13832395395287E-149,2.32245606200353E-148,1.70371516590022E-147,1.23892885203306E-146,8.93091153352558E-146,6.38183250482099E-145,4.52059252402307E-144,3.1742843277846E-143,2.20951495945469E-142,1.52457532439347E-141,1.04280188391803E-140,7.07059355480371E-140,4.75238100193125E-139,3.16641701589543E-138,2.09134953402173E-137,1.36926329163255E-136,8.88687"}}},"buckets"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"Human utility",null,null,null,null,"pos exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(L6)","v":7.0620256985400632E+50},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(L6,L7)","v":5.959747492242024E+109},"Warning: takes a long time to evaluate (30 seconds on my machine)"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"humans per star",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F8,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":100000000000},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F8,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":0.78030414607237897}]
["Hedonium utility",null,null,null,null,"utility per wealthy human",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F9,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F9,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},"assumes there will be no poverty in the far future",null,"factory farming weighted utility",{"$f":"G16*O9","v":5.4644157967709579E+33},{"$f":"H16","v":2.7310645112533267},"P(factory farming exists)",{"$f":"p_biological*p_not_care_about_animals*p_factory_farming","v":9.6000000000000016E-2}]
["utility per hedonium",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A10,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1000},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A10,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G$3:G$4)*PRODUCT(G8:G9)","v":3.1622776601683788E+34},{"$f":"SUM(H$3:H$4)+SUM(H8:H9)","v":2.7310645112533267},null,null,"wild vertebrate weighted utility",{"$f":"G22*O10","v":5.1200000000000003E+36},{"$f":"H22","v":3.1212165842895159},"P(wild vertebrates exist)",{"$f":"p_biological*p_not_care_about_animals*p_spread_was","v":0.12800000000000003}]
["utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT($B$3:$B$6)*B10","v":3.1622776601683793E+48},{"$f":"SUM(C$3:C$6)+C10","v":3.5113686573257055},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"insect weighted utility",{"$f":"G28*O11","v":1.6190861620062103E+40},{"$f":"H28","v":3.5113686573257055},"P(insects exist)",{"$f":"p_biological*p_not_care_about_animals*p_spread_was","v":0.12800000000000003}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"simulation weighted utility",{"$f":"G35*O12","v":3.8399999999999992E+38},{"$f":"H35","v":4.6818248764342734},"P(simulations exist)",{"$f":"p_biological*p_not_care_about_animals*p_suffering_simulations","v":9.6000000000000016E-2}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"Factory farming neg utility",null,null,null,null,"paperclip weighted utility",{"$f":"B21*O13","v":8.0954308100310524E+43},{"$f":"C21","v":3.5113686573257055},"P(paperclips exist)",{"$f":"p_computronium*p_paperclip","v":0.25600000000000001}]
["Em utility",null,null,null,null,"factory farmed animals per star",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F14,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":100000000000},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F14,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":0.78030414607237897},null,null,"dolorium weighted utility",{"$f":"B26*O14","v":1.2649110640673518E+46},{"$f":"C26","v":3.5113686573257055},"P(dolorium exists)",{"$f":"p_computronium*p_dolorium","v":4.0000000000000001E-3}]
["utility per em",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A15,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A15,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"utility per factory farmed animal",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F15,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1.7999999999999998},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F15,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"neg EV 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04474260668E-139,4.0301905437806E-140,1.35438508808398E-140,"},"buckets"]
["utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT($B$3:$B$6)*B15","v":3.1622776601683795E+45},{"$f":"SUM(C$3:C$6)+C15","v":3.5113686573257055},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G$3:G$4)*PRODUCT(G14:G15)","v":5.6920997883030807E+34},{"$f":"SUM(H$3:H$4)+SUM(H14:H15)","v":2.7310645112533267},null,null,"neg exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(L15)","v":1.4217858907253908E+50},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(L15,L16)","v":2.3987886749258687E+108},"Warning: takes a long time to evaluate (30 seconds on my machine)"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"exp mean/variance",{"$f":"L7-L16","v":5.6402398078146723E+50},{"$f":"DifferenceVariance(L7:M7,L16:M16)","v":6.1996263597346108E+109}]
["Paperclip neg utility",null,null,null,null,"Wild vertebrate neg utility",null,null,null,null,"EV far future",{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(L18,M18))","v":4.0402885211266472E+46},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(L18,M18) / LN(10))^2","v":3.600201532086265}]
["utility per paperclip",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A20,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":0.1},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A20,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"wild vertebrates per star",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F20,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":316227766016837.94},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F20,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":1.1704562191085683}]
["utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT($B$3:$B$6)*B20","v":3.1622776601683798E+44},{"$f":"SUM(C$3:C$6)+C20","v":3.5113686573257055},null,null,"utility per wild vertebrate",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F21,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":0.4},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F21,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G$3:G$4)*PRODUCT(G20:G21)","v":3.9999999999999993E+37},{"$f":"SUM(H$3:H$4)+SUM(H20:H21)","v":3.1212165842895159}]
[]
["Dolorium neg utility"]
["utility per dolorium",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A25,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1000},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(A25,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"Insect neg utility"]
["utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT($B$3:$B$6)*B25","v":3.1622776601683793E+48},{"$f":"SUM(C$3:C$6)+C25","v":3.5113686573257055},null,null,"insects per star",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F26,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":1E+19},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F26,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":1.5606082921447579}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility per insect",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F27,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":0.04},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F27,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G$3:G$4)*PRODUCT(G26:G27)","v":1.2649110640673514E+41},{"$f":"SUM(H$3:H$4)+SUM(H26:H27)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,"Simulation neg utility"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"insects per star",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F32,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":1E+19},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F32,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":1.5606082921447579}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"simulations per insect",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F33,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,2,FALSE)","v":3.1622776601683791E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($F33,Globals!$N$36:$P$42,3,FALSE)","v":1.1704562191085683}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility per insect",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F34,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":0.04},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F34,Globals!$A$21:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G$3:G$4)*PRODUCT(G32:G34)","v":3.9999999999999985E+39},{"$f":"SUM(H$3:H$4)+SUM(H32:H34)","v":4.6818248764342734}]

{"sheet":"GiveDirectly","index":3,"n_rows":31,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":31,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Inputs (80% CI)",null,null,null,null,"Direct effect"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)","Sigma"]
["cost per year to end poverty ($)",50000000000,2000000000000,"from looking at random articles I found on Google, combined with Fermi estimate (1.2B people, $1/day ~= $500B/yr)",null,"utility estimate",1,{"$f":"I3^2","v":4.0000000000000008E-2},0.2]
["P(extinction)",0.1,0.5,"implicitly correlated with P(AI-related extinction) on the AI Safety sheet",null,"Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,G3:H3)","v":0.85832741114212496}]
["proportion of extinction scenarios averted by ending poverty",5.0000000000000001E-3,0.2,null,null,"Log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_global_poverty,sigma_global_poverty,G3:H3)","v":"disabled"}]
["proportion of extinction scenarios caused by ending poverty",{"$f":"B5*1.01","v":5.0499999999999998E-3},{"$f":"C5*1.01","v":0.20200000000000001}]
["poverty ended per $1000",{"$f":"1000/C3*interest_rate","v":2.5000000000000004E-11},{"$f":"1000/B3*interest_rate","v":1.0000000000000001E-9}]
["days factory-farm suffering caused per $1000",1.21,192,"http://effective-altruism.com/ea/rl/quantifying_the_impact_of_economic_growth_on_meat/",null,"Extinction risk reduction",null,null,null,null,"Extinction risk increase"]
["years factory-farm suffering per $1000",{"$f":"B8/365","v":3.3150684931506848E-3},{"$f":"C8/365","v":0.52602739726027392},null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"P(extinction)",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$4,$C$4)","v":0.22360679774997896},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$4,$C$4)","v":0.27270459618181209},null,null,"P(extinction)",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$4,$C$4)","v":0.22360679774997896},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$4,$C$4)","v":0.27270459618181209}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"extinction scenarios averted by ending poverty",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$5,$C$5)","v":3.1622776601683791E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$5,$C$5)","v":0.62504702674494428},null,null,"extinction scenarios caused by ending poverty",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$6,$C$6)","v":3.1939004367700634E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$6,$C$6)","v":0.62504702674494439}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"poverty ended per $1000",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$7,$C$7)","v":1.5811388300841898E-10},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$7,$C$7)","v":0.62504702674494428},null,null,"poverty ended per $1000",{"$f":"GEOMEAN($B$7,$C$7)","v":1.5811388300841898E-10},{"$f":"LogVariance($B$7,$C$7)","v":0.62504702674494428}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"EV far future",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$18:$M$19,2,FALSE)","v":4.0402885211266472E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(F13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$18:$M$19,3,FALSE)","v":3.600201532086265},null,null,"EV far future",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(K13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$18:$M$19,2,FALSE)","v":4.0402885211266472E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(K13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$18:$M$19,3,FALSE)","v":3.600201532086265}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(G10:G13)","v":4.5171798909756391E+34},{"$f":"SUM(H10:H13)","v":5.1230001817579662},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(L10:L13)","v":4.5623516898853962E+34},{"$f":"SUM(M10:M13)","v":5.1230001817579662}]
[null,null,null,null,null,"pos exp mean/variance",{"$f":"meanFromParams(G14:H14)","v":3.5722291584501896E+40},{"$f":"VarianceFromParams(G14:H14)","v":7.9803597973189371E+92}]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Factory farming increase"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"years factory-farm suffering per $1000",{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B9,C9)","v":4.1759033168783891E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B9,C9)","v":0.85853582389873684}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility per factory farmed animal",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(K20,Globals!$A$22:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1.7999999999999998},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(K20,Globals!$A$22:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(L19:L20)","v":7.5166259703810995E-2},{"$f":"SUM(M19:M20)","v":0.85853582389873684}]
["Results"]
["Total far future effect"]
["overall exp mean/variance",{"$f":"G15-L28","v":-5.0718069182569168E+38},{"$f":"DifferenceVariance(G15:H15,L28:M28)","v":1.6154960398784601E+93},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Utiliy Estimates"]
["overall utility estimate",{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(ABS(B24),C24))","v":6.3998894867052933E+30},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(B24,C24) / LN(10))^2","v":6.8609757451714941},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"x-risk",{"$f":"L14","v":4.5623516898853962E+34},{"$f":"M14","v":5.1230001817579662}]
["Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,B25:C25)*SIGN(B24)","v":-1021738259900383.5},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"factory farming",{"$f":"L21","v":7.5166259703810995E-2},{"$f":"M21","v":0.85853582389873684}]
["Log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,B25:C25)*SIGN(B24)","v":-7195.1231721748518},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"sum (buckets)",{"$f":"WriteArray(SumLognormDists(L25:M26))","v":{"$cut":{"chars":21071,"head":"0,0,0,0,2.24047959884641E-190,1.75254683946835E-188,3.59256373004528E-187,9.08686052711893E-186,1.63737952599719E-184,2.71803356490436E-183,4.35553100921974E-182,7.04358387057452E-181,1.09804914209245E-179,1.6787259580775E-178,2.52799637561952E-177,3.75562974501298E-176,5.50728119917447E-175,7.97306244858581E-174,1.13966500619329E-172,1.60843901101327E-171,2.24135961064879E-170,3.08389629082378E-169,4.18957616797942E-168,5.61982799438384E-167,7.44318743544649E-166,9.7337064020406E-165,1.25684357517803E-163,1.60239013257905E-162,2.01715694202516E-161,2.50723975567794E-160,3.07706840458356E-159,3.72875553874515E-158,4.46145502699106E-157,5.27078563577463E-156,6.1483813897143E-155,7.08163026691757E-154,8.05365645254237E-153,9.0435878033037E-152,1.0027129883572E-150,1.09774423101528E-149,1.18662844958882E-148,1.26653692322733E-147,1.33478372851152E-146,1.38897476022073E-145,1.42714685955137E-144,1.44788580111397E-143,1.45041325691292E-142,1.43463528156646E-141,1.40114810753012E-140,1.35120075195594E-139,1.28661770455977E-138,1.20968836763003E-137,1.12303258411242E-136,1.02945324564087E-135,9.31787480176384E-135,8.32767284948466E-134,7.34898838037232E-133,6.40367343726919E-132,5.50971462911635E-131,4.68088490622263E-130,3.92668782508921E-129,3.25255751786868E-128,2.66026220964495E-127,2.14845085124228E-126,1.71328100936917E-125,1.34907059276292E-124,1.04892481094508E-123,8.05301254941055E-123,6.1048847763256E-122,4.56985483173671E-121,3.37780014822865E-120,2.46531775491874E-119,1.7767244338149E-118,1.26437614865572E-117,8.88469271353618E-117,6.1648043091684E-116,4.22384364869989E-115,2.85764935230988E-114,1.90907740864296E-113,1.25936781499772E-112,8.20346009556169E-112,5.27664623906263E-111,3.35147776720089E-110,2.10200242573701E-109,1.30181618595772E-108,7.96135170897239E-108,4.8077931676407E-107,2.86700022525737E-106,1.68823872043714E-105,9.81669707741335E-105,5.63668263965455E-104,3.19602177400991E-103,1.78947301600704E-102,9.89398437266256E-102,5.40193468554453E-101,2.91246637904124E-100,1.55062748200202e-99,8.15249462389621e-99,4.2326428251617e-98,2.17006325341264e-97,1.09868829250737e-96,5.49312706647261e-96,2.71212437684397e-95,1.32234928839591e-94,6.36694752592578e-94,3.02737896939228e-93,1.4215257713603e-92,6.59169604238904e-92,3.01853503365535e-91,1.36506733959082e-90,6.09639370463725e-90,2.68878052696144e-89,1.17112578539231e-88,5.03755822077991e-88,2.13996934358336e-87,8.97777352600699e-87,3.71968477122746e-86,1.52202890578569e-85,6.15066276670984e-85,2.45474435286858e-84,9.6756279739927e-84,3.76655149415257e-83,1.44811800793187e-82,5.49873596927127e-82,2.06216946887734e-81,7.63822168234398e-81,2.79428422740534e-80,1.00963282993739e-79,3.60309093730449e-79,1.27001934763849e-78,4.42153901845703e-78,1.52044053246117e-77,5.16420295286801e-77,1.73252809816158e-76,5.74124183011435e-76,1.87925463224115e-75,6.07610891901481e-75,1.94058084245372e-74,6.12224329879659e-74,1.90795766156817e-73,5.87371820329723e-73,1.78628565745904e-72,5.36648163628141e-72,1.59271154094762e-71,4.66983442324221e-71,1.35266789128925e-70,3.87092753327779e-70,1.09441551862637e-69,3.0570486134204e-69,8.43694661099815e-69,2.30060189423583e-68,6.19842927596879e-68,1.65012583954267e-67,4.34069640019087e-67,1.1282903218505e-66,2.89810485287113e-66,7.35617918087997e-66,1.84522450974144e-65,4.57424204986904e-65,1.12066800238011e-64,2.71355239107281e-64,6.49410054084266e-64,1.53615905440913e-63,3.59175966237126e-63,8.30138442283694e-63,1.89664041284528e-62,4.28381349555117e-62,9.56550529724807e-62,2.11173163727345e-61,4.60941269345664e-61,9.94837518059852e-61,2.12316206011914e-60,4.48089186748863e-60,9.35240407904874e-60,1.93058102058566e-59,3.94174659978299e-59,7.96080061602294e-59,1.59046937680978e-58,3.14361489968227e-58,6.14760158213047e-58,1.18957936811683e-57,2.27789511971509e-57,4.31688349947657e-57,8.09747472535229e-57,1.50356002769138e-56,2.76398802051101e-56,5.03096615502934e-56,9.06829615621209e-56,1.61890765335391e-55,2.86290955835699e-55,5.01595646351067e-55,8.70836109400497e-55,1.49842973890108e-54,2.55587344180654e-54,4.3225116825118e-54,"}}},"buckets"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"neg exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(L27)","v":3.6229472276327588E+40},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(L27,L28)","v":8.1746006014656638E+92}]
[]
["Total (Pareto)",{"$f":"B26+G4","v":-1021738259900382.6}]
["Total (log-normal)",{"$f":"B27+G5","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]

{"sheet":"THL","index":4,"n_rows":35,"n_cols":15,"rows_kept":35,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Inputs (80% CI)",null,null,null,null,null,null,"Direct effect",null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on suffering simulations"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)",null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
["years factory farming prevented per $1",0.7,13,null,null,"Estimated by doubling the 80% CI given by http://www.animalcharityevaluators.org/research/interventions/impact-calculator/. Excludes shellfish.",null,"years factory farming prevented per $1000",{"$f":"D4","v":3016.620625799671},{"$f":"E4","v":0.49504262895320128},null,null,"suffering simulations prevented",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M3,$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M3,$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688}]
["years factory farming prevented per $1000",{"$f":"B3*1000","v":700},{"$f":"C3*1000","v":13000},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B4,C4)","v":3016.620625799671},{"$f":"LogVariance(B4,C4)","v":0.49504262895320128},null,null,"utility per factory farmed animal",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H4,Globals!$A$22:$L$30,11,FALSE)","v":1.7999999999999998},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H4,Globals!$A$22:$L$30,12,FALSE)","v":0},null,null,"simulation weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":3.8399999999999992E+38},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":4.6818248764342734}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I3:I4)","v":5429.9171264394072},{"$f":"SUM(J3:J4)","v":0.49504262895320128},null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
["memetically relevant humans",1000000000,2000000000,null,null,null,null,"Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,I5:J5)","v":396.49368154968971},null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
["1/memetically relevant humans",5.0000000000000003E-10,1.0000000000000001E-9,7.0700000000000004E-10,0.11744747699999999,null,null,"log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_factory_farming,sigma_factory_farming,I5:J5)","v":194.83133807235006},null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(N3:N6)","v":4.8191608764285387E+29},{"$f":"SUM(O3:O6)","v":5.8551132611843801}]
["vegetarians per $1000",22,323,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B8,C8)","v":84.297093662830392},{"$f":"LogVariance(B8,C8)","v":0.45522157394153262},"Estimated by doubling the 80% CI for online ads from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YSkZDTWacpkmnZMdRsIMLuCOdIILNVmGTIQAomZDxD4"]
["years spent being vegetarian",5,8,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B9,C9)","v":6.324555320336759},{"$f":"LogVariance(B9,C9)","v":7.9637834381320105E-2},"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YSkZDTWacpkmnZMdRsIMLuCOdIILNVmGTIQAomZDxD4"]
["vegetarian-years per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"D8*D9","v":533.14163221418005},{"$f":"E8+E9","v":0.53485940832285273},null,null,"Far-future effect on factory farming",null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on hedonium"]
["annual rate at which vegetarians convert new vegetarians",5.0000000000000001E-3,0.03,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B11,C11)","v":1.2247448713915889E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B11,C11)","v":0.30359732347288149},null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)",null,null,"hedonium caused",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M11,$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M11,$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.27270459618181209}]
["veg-years directly created per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"D10*interest_rate","v":26.657081610709003},{"$f":"E10","v":0.53485940832285273},null,null,"P(stopping this if we stop factory farming)",1,0,null,null,"hedonium weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M12,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":6.3245553203367595E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M12,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
["veg-years indirectly created per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"D10*D11","v":6.5296247977965773},{"$f":"E10+E11","v":0.83845673179573421},null,null,"factory farming weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.4644157967709579E+33},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":2.7310645112533267},null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
["sum 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is the probability increase of stopping WAS conditional on stopping factory farming. This assumes net effect is positive. You can make it negative but that requires changing the way the posterior is calculated. If you make the low CI close to 0, that has a similar effect to putting some of the probability mass below 0.",null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999},null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
["exp mean/variance",null,null,{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(D14)","v":169.78212989114454},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(D14,D15)","v":498593.710722032},null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(N11:N14)","v":3.9686262448665216E+37},{"$f":"SUM(O11:O14)","v":4.4497620883670574}]
["veg-years permanently created per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(ABS(D15),E15))","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(D15,E15) / LN(10))^2","v":0.54824135785953976},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I12:I15)","v":1.5334476009081862E+26},{"$f":"SUM(J12:J15)","v":3.3967533461128663}]
[]
["wild vertebrate suffering prevented if we end factory farming",0.01,0.2,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B18,C18)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B18,C18)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Total positive far-future effect"]
["insect suffering prevented",5.0000000000000001E-3,0.1,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B19,C19)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B19,C19)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimates",{"$f":"I16","v":1.5334476009081862E+26},{"$f":"J16","v":3.3967533461128663}]
["suffering simulations prevented",0.01,0.2,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B20,C20)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B20,C20)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,"Far-future effect on wild vertebrates",null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"I26","v":6.4255478352380534E+27},{"$f":"J26","v":4.2945049690396218}]
["hedonium caused",0.01,0.05,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B21,C21)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B21,C21)","v":0.27270459618181209},null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,null,{"$f":"I35","v":1.0159683186858292E+31},{"$f":"J35","v":4.6846570420758127}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrate suffering prevented if we end factory farming",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H22,$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H22,$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,null,{"$f":"N7","v":4.8191608764285387E+29},{"$f":"O7","v":5.8551132611843801}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrate weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H23,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.1200000000000003E+36},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H23,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.1212165842895159},null,null,null,{"$f":"N15","v":3.9686262448665216E+37},{"$f":"O15","v":4.4497620883670574}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999},null,null,"sum (buckets)",{"$f":"WriteArray(SumLognormDists(N19:O23))","v":"disabled"},"buckets"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976},null,null,"exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(N24)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(N24,N25)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
["Results",null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I22:I25)","v":6.4255478352380534E+27},{"$f":"SUM(J22:J25)","v":4.2945049690396218}]
["Total far-future effect","Mu","Sigma^2"]
["exp mean/variance",{"$f":"N25","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"O25","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
["overall utility estimate",{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(ABS(B28),C28))","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(B28,C28) / LN(10))^2","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on insects"]
["Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,B29:C29)*SIGN(B28)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
["Log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,B29:C29)*SIGN(B28)","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,null,null,null,"insect suffering prevented",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H31,$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H31,$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"insect weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H32,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":1.6190861620062103E+40},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H32,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
["Total (Pareto)",{"$f":"B30+I6","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
["Total (log-normal)",{"$f":"B31+I7","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}},null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I31:I34)","v":1.0159683186858292E+31},{"$f":"SUM(J31:J34)","v":4.6846570420758127}]

{"sheet":"Cage-Free","index":5,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":15,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Inputs (80% CI)",null,null,null,null,null,null,"Direct effect",null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on suffering simulations"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
["total expenditures ($M)",2,3,null,null,"includes all money spent on cage-free campaigns",null,"cage-free years per $1000",{"$f":"D10","v":295803.98915498087},{"$f":"E10","v":0.31528753718843733},null,null,"suffering simulations prevented",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M3,THL!$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M3,THL!$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688}]
["1/expenditures",{"$f":"1/C3","v":0.33333333333333331},{"$f":"1/B3","v":0.5},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B4,C4)","v":0.40824829046386302},{"$f":"LogVariance(B4,C4)","v":6.8702369764126706E-2},null,null,"utility per cage removed",{"$f":"Globals!K24","v":0.3},{"$f":"Globals!L24","v":0},null,null,"simulation weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":3.8399999999999992E+38},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":4.6818248764342734}]
["years until cage-free would have happened anyway",5,10,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B5,C5)","v":7.0710678118654755},{"$f":"LogVariance(B5,C5)","v":0.11744747685437738},"http://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/initial-grants-support-corporate-cage-free-reforms#Corporate_cage-free_campaigns_are_extremely_cost-effective",null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"I3*I4","v":88741.196746494257},{"$f":"J3+J4","v":0.31528753718843733},null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"THL!$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"THL!$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
["millions of cages prevented",100,150,122.47448713915891,6.8702369764126706E-2,null,null,"Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,I5:J5)","v":16679.269175199799},null,null,null,"veg-years per cage-free year",{"$f":"$D$11","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"$E$11","v":0.59415429945387477}]
["proportion of change attributable to campaigns",0.7,1,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B7,C7)","v":0.83666002653407556},{"$f":"LogVariance(B7,C7)","v":6.0435320805806568E-2},null,null,"Log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_factory_farming,sigma_factory_farming,I5:J5)","v":2531.88913733256},null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"THL!$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"THL!$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
["cage-free years per cage prevented",1,1,1,0,"http://www.unitedegg.org/GeneralStats/default.cfm",null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(N3:N7)","v":8.3470314878223899E+27},{"$f":"SUM(O3:O7)","v":6.4492675606382548}]
["cage-free years per $1",null,null,{"$f":"PRODUCT(D4:D8)","v":295.80398915498085},{"$f":"SUM(E4:E8)","v":0.31528753718843733}]
["cage-free years per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"D9*1000","v":295803.98915498087},{"$f":"E9","v":0.31528753718843733},null,null,"Far-future effect on factory farming"]
["values spreading effect of cage-free year vs vegetarian-year",3.0000000000000001E-3,0.1,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B11,C11)","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B11,C11)","v":0.59415429945387477},"I suspect this is low-ish b/c cage-free has weaker memetic effects than vegetarianism",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)",null,null,"Far-future effect on hedonium"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"P(stopping this if we stop factory farming)",1,0,null,null,"hedonium caused",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M12,THL!$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(M12,THL!$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.27270459618181209}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"factory farming weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.4644157967709579E+33},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":2.7310645112533267},null,null,"hedonium weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":6.3245553203367595E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($M13,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"THL!$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"THL!$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999},null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"THL!$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"THL!$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
["Results",null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years per cage-free year",{"$f":"$D$11","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"$E$11","v":0.59415429945387477},null,null,"veg-years per cage-free year",{"$f":"$D$11","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"$E$11","v":0.59415429945387477}]
["Total far-future effect","Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"THL!$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"THL!$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976},null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"THL!$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"THL!$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
["exp mean/variance",{"$f":"N27","v":4.4537711507016281E+41},{"$f":"O27","v":8.0723193157394884E+94},null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I12:I16)","v":2.6560091555175811E+24},{"$f":"SUM(J12:J16)","v":3.9909076455667409},null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(N12:N16)","v":6.8738622923600996E+35},{"$f":"SUM(O12:O16)","v":5.0439163878209321}]
["overall utility estimate",{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(ABS(B17),C17))","v":6.9816267853740389E+35},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(B17,C17) / LN(10))^2","v":5.0419602613688435}]
["Pareto posterior",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,B18:C18)*SIGN(B17)","v":1.7155923138575062E+24}]
["Log-normal posterior",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,B18:C18)*SIGN(B17)","v":120162.81876641281},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Total positive far-future effect"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on wild vertebrates",null,null,null,null,"utility estimates",{"$f":"I17","v":2.6560091555175811E+24},{"$f":"J17","v":3.9909076455667409}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,null,{"$f":"I28","v":1.1129375317096521E+26},{"$f":"J28","v":4.8886592684934964}]
["Total (Pareto)",{"$f":"B19+I6","v":1.7155923138575062E+24},null,null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrate suffering prevented if we end factory farming",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H23,THL!$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":4.4721359549995794E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H23,THL!$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,null,{"$f":"I38","v":1.759708746844185E+29},{"$f":"J38","v":5.2788113415296873}]
["Total (log-normal)",{"$f":"B20+I7","v":122694.70790374537},null,null,null,null,null,"wild vertebrate weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H24,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.1200000000000003E+36},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H24,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.1212165842895159},null,null,null,{"$f":"N8","v":8.3470314878223899E+27},{"$f":"O8","v":6.4492675606382548}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"THL!$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"THL!$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999},null,null,null,{"$f":"N17","v":6.8738622923600996E+35},{"$f":"O17","v":5.0439163878209321}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years per cage-free year",{"$f":"$D$11","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"$E$11","v":0.59415429945387477},null,null,"sum (buckets)",{"$f":"WriteArray(SumLognormDists(N21:O25))","v":{"$cut":{"chars":19206,"head":"0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.95320168827251E-313,6.3544161591977E-312,1.99841179668957E-310,6.2024185246703E-309,1.90698480700471E-307,5.80861394011061E-306,1.75282471466575E-304,5.24016770442261E-303,1.55200334252908E-301,4.55387317762105E-300,1.32376248765641E-298,3.81223894316267E-297,1.08765486899885E-295,3.07427774583805E-294,8.60867157037754E-293,2.38819766763179E-291,6.56365190183955E-290,1.78715408997175E-288,4.82080644318431E-287,1.28830495010546E-285,3.41082149014176E-284,8.94624298341071E-283,2.32468344184625E-281,5.98450781918327E-280,1.52628132244963E-278,3.85640223531496E-277,9.65320877122648E-276,2.39388211514112E-274,5.88133018374484E-273,1.43149605808438E-271,3.45180772917952E-270,8.24603049166583E-269,1.95157492162303E-267,4.57580520299679E-266,1.06289873042814E-264,2.44601077121246E-263,5.57656814613176E-262,1.25955718517198E-260,2.81845463805548E-259,6.248079538624E-258,1.37222221895121E-256,2.98569059304064E-255,6.43587596504706E-254,1.3743998623474E-252,2.90777749484667E-251,6.09469432665021E-250,1.26556785905637E-248,2.60352501580472E-247,5.30616736614856E-246,1.07137884387685E-244,2.14312835693573E-243,4.24713783917888E-242,8.33849454986767E-241,1.62189272450096E-239,3.1253585589944E-238,5.96651703134783E-237,1.1284577325177E-235,2.11442921754034E-234,3.9250438625969E-233,7.21837520684421E-232,1.31515831020675E-230,2.37388854477312E-229,4.24508504141277E-228,7.52066619329226E-227,1.3199885023923E-225,2.29523930098667E-224,3.95393798683996E-223,6.74801230242169E-222,1.14094860063451E-220,1.91117549993695E-219,3.17160728834067E-218,5.21437988118735E-217,8.4931818889244E-216,1.3705117242241E-214,2.19098666328219E-213,3.47009558977075E-212,5.44487539806877E-211,8.46407171122386E-210,1.30351394877429E-208,1.98882729311707E-207,3.00623952033253E-206,4.50189425442013E-205,6.67901290454305E-204,9.81690620110823E-203,1.42949437099209E-201,2.06222378356218E-200,2.94737063021452E-199,4.17329818421523E-198,5.85423123256807E-197,8.13591133597964E-196,1.1201817912723E-194,1.52797717588913E-193,2.06486361519555E-192,2.76447147975499E-191,3.66673214055551E-190,4.81828715609596E-189,6.27267359136499E-188,8.09020095606674E-187,1.03374312957443E-185,1.3086176270312E-184,1.64119353015636E-183,2.03917184281588E-182,2.51012271563945E-181,3.06114062873556E-180,3.69844283335929E-179,4.42692274114055E-178,5.24967578755458E-177,6.16752097940718E-176,7.17854631287086E-175,8.27770992529942E-174,9.45653064167552E-173,1.07029009974294E-171,1.20010525161528E-170,1.33316968594998E-169,1.46723575748087E-168,1.59978959571109E-167,1.72812217098312E-166,1.84941655674085E-165,1.96084779372906E-164,2.05969061022887E-163,2.14342937238312E-162,2.20986412594164E-161,2.25720651285048E-160,2.28415973346111E-159,2.28997756595089E-158,2.27449869410901E-157,2.23815413941595E-156,2.18194731951321E-155,2.10740802071938E-154,2.01652323123561E-153,1.91164919888496E-152,1.79541014160346E-151,1.67058967415876E-150,1.54002118572283E-149,1.40648311814794E-148,1.27260440258298E-147,1.14078429422522E-146,1.01312960650757E-145,8.91411003140436E-145,7.77038674560506E-144,6.7105650800217E-143,5.74152840503079E-142,4.86685118273763E-141,4.08715301954041E-140,3.40052655548197E-139,2.80300613363223E-138,2.28904691637584E-137,1.85198845476315E-136,1.48448207966608E-135,1.17886729013294E-134,9.27488049899452E-134,7.22945152120151E-133,5.58285278724027E-132,4.27130890963684E-131,3.23757582181896E-130,2.43127038549932E-129,1.80884396247732E-128,1.33328708128876E-127,9.73646151275104E-127,7.04423345085748E-126,5.04918908830661E-125,3.58562638783233E-124,2.52269150071636E-123,1.75840603869314E-122,1.21431206830288E-121,8.30802489692205E-121,5.63147052081986E-120,3.78183525054191E-119,2.51617232485453E-118,1.65857595718923E-117,1.08314795727297E-116,7.00806093885706E-116,4.49227001720156E-115,2.85293561399342E-114,1.79504964190659E-113,1.11897291669052E-112,6.91069224158407E-112,"}}},"buckets"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"THL!$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"THL!$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976},null,null,"exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(N26)","v":4.4537711507016281E+41},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(N26,N27)","v":8.0723193157394884E+94}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I23:I27)","v":1.1129375317096521E+26},{"$f":"SUM(J23:J27)","v":4.8886592684934964}]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Far-future effect on insects"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"insect suffering prevented",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H33,THL!$A$18:$E$21,4,FALSE)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H33,THL!$A$18:$E$21,5,FALSE)","v":0.50759954989056688}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"insect weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H34,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,2,FALSE)","v":1.6190861620062103E+40},{"$f":"VLOOKUP($H34,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$N$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/memetically relevant humans",{"$f":"THL!$D$7","v":7.0700000000000004E-10},{"$f":"THL!$E$7","v":0.11744747699999999}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years per cage-free year",{"$f":"$D$11","v":1.7320508075688773E-2},{"$f":"$E$11","v":0.59415429945387477}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"veg-years permanently created per $1000",{"$f":"THL!$D$16","v":39.692256431966342},{"$f":"THL!$E$16","v":0.54824135785953976}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(I33:I37)","v":1.759708746844185E+29},{"$f":"SUM(J33:J37)","v":5.2788113415296873}]

{"sheet":"AI Safety","index":6,"n_rows":34,"n_cols":14,"rows_kept":34,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["General","(80% CI)",null,null,null,null,"Model 1 (GPP)","(80% CI)","http://globalprioritiesproject.org/2015/08/quantifyingaisafety/"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2",null,null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2"]
["cost per AI researcher",70000,150000,null,null,"some uncertainty here about how to account for counterfactuals; presumably AI safety researchers would do something high value otherwise","P(AI-related extinction)",0.03,0.3,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H3,I3)","v":9.4868329805051374E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(H3,I3)","v":0.39015207303618948},"Estimated from FHI x-risk survey. CI for probability represents uncertainty about estimate."]
["1/cost per AI researcher",{"$f":"1/C3","v":6.6666666666666666E-6},{"$f":"1/B3","v":1.4285714285714285E-5},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B4,C4)","v":9.7590007294853309E-6},{"$f":"LogVariance(B4,C4)","v":0.12913769056993327},null,"size of FAI community when AGI created",200,10000,null,null,"See https://intelligence.org/2014/01/28/how-big-is-ai/"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/size of FAI community when AGI created",{"$f":"1/I4","v":1E-4},{"$f":"1/H4","v":5.0000000000000001E-3},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H5,I5)","v":7.0710678118654762E-4},{"$f":"LogVariance(H5,I5)","v":0.66285666921800146}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"AI researcher multiplicative effect",1,3,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H6,I6)","v":1.7320508075688774},{"$f":"LogVariance(H6,I6)","v":0.18614984661850412},"If we add 1 new researcher now, there will be this many new researchers by the time AGI is developed."]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"proportion of bad scenarios averted by doubling total research",0.1,0.7,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H7,I7)","v":0.26457513110645903},{"$f":"LogVariance(H7,I7)","v":0.32971675223038288}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"x-risk averted per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"J3*J5*J6*J7*D4*1000","v":2.9999999999999999E-7},{"$f":"K3+K5+K6+K7+E4","v":1.6980130316730113}]
["Results",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null," "]
["Unified model"]
["Total (Pareto posterior)",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,H26:I26)","v":6.3112967095697664E+27},null,null,null,null,"Model 2","(80% CI)"]
["Total (log-normal posterior)",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,H26:I26)","v":213917.63204134765},null,null,null,null,null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"hours to solve AI safety",1000000,10000000000,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H13,I13)","v":100000000},{"$f":"LogVariance(H13,I13)","v":1.5606082921447579},"Perhaps this should follow Pareto dist? http://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAGI.pdf"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"hours per year per AI researcher",2000,2000,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H14,I14)","v":2000},{"$f":"LogVariance(H14,I14)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"1/hours to solve",{"$f":"1/I13","v":1E-10},{"$f":"1/H13","v":9.9999999999999995E-7},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H15,I15)","v":1E-8},{"$f":"LogVariance(H15,I15)","v":1.5606082921447579}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"x-risk averted per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"J14*J15*D4*1000","v":1.9518001458970664E-7},{"$f":"K14+K15+E4","v":1.6897459827146912}]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Model average"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"x-risk averted per $1000",null,null,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(J8,J16)","v":2.4197934700488798E-7},{"$f":"AVERAGE(K8,K16)","v":1.6938795071938513},"I don't know the right way to calculate this variance"]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2 (orders of magnitude)"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"x-risk averted per $1000",{"$f":"J20","v":2.4197934700488798E-7},{"$f":"K20","v":1.6938795071938513}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"EV far future",{"$f":"'EV of Far Future'!L19","v":4.0402885211266472E+46},{"$f":"'EV of Far Future'!M19","v":3.600201532086265}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"utility estimate",{"$f":"PRODUCT(H24:H25)","v":9.7766637805357065E+39},{"$f":"SUM(I24:I25)","v":5.2940810392801163}]
[]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Model 3 (INCOMPLETE)","Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2","(assumes AGI is a binary outcome: friendly or unfriendly)"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"FAI community growth rate",0.1,0.1,null,null,"assumes constant exponential growth rate"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"AGI date",2040,2100]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"years until AGI",{"$f":"H31-YEAR(TODAY())","v":24},{"$f":"I31-YEAR(TODAY())","v":84}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"researcher-years spent on AI safety by AGI date",{"$f":"H4/LN(1+H30)*(1-1/((1+H30)^H32))","v":1885.3692309674122},{"$f":"I4/LN(1+I30)*(1-1/((1+I30)^I32))","v":104885.60241393384},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(H33,I33)","v":14062.293111819003},{"$f":"LogVariance(H33,I33)","v":0.68094000612010941},"TODO: this just combines 80% CI's, which is incorrect"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"P(|hours spent - hours needed| <= hours provided by $1000)"]

{"sheet":"AI Targeted Values Spreading","index":7,"n_rows":24,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":24,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Inputs (80% CI)",null,null,null,null,null,null,"Model"]
[null,"Low CI","High CI","Mu","Sigma^2","Notes",null,null,"Mu","Sigma^2"]
["P(friendly AI gets built)",0.1,0.5,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B3,C3)","v":0.22360679774997896},{"$f":"LogVariance(B3,C3)","v":0.27270459618181209},null,null,"hedonium weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H3,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":6.3245553203367595E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H3,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
["P(FAI is bad for animals by default)",0.2,0.8,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B4,C4)","v":0.4},{"$f":"LogVariance(B4,C4)","v":0.23489495370875477},null,null,"dolorium weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":1.2649110640673518E+46},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H4,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
["P(AI researchers' values matter)",0.1,0.6,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B5,C5)","v":0.2449489742783178},{"$f":"LogVariance(B5,C5)","v":0.30359732347288149},null,null,"factory farming weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H5,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.4644157967709579E+33},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H5,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":2.7310645112533267}]
["number of AI researchers when AGI created",5000,100000,null,null,"Different from size of AI safety community; presumably all AI researchers could matter. See https://intelligence.org/2014/01/28/how-big-is-ai/",null,"wild vertebrate weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H6,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":5.1200000000000003E+36},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H6,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.1212165842895159}]
["1/number of AI researchers",{"$f":"1/C6","v":1.0000000000000001E-5},{"$f":"1/B6","v":2.0000000000000001E-4},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B7,C7)","v":4.4721359549995795E-5},{"$f":"LogVariance(B7,C7)","v":0.50759954989056688},null,null,"insect weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H7,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":1.6190861620062103E+40},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H7,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":3.5113686573257055}]
["values propagation multiplier",0.5,5,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B8,C8)","v":1.5811388300841898},{"$f":"LogVariance(B8,C8)","v":0.39015207303618948},"If we change one researcher's values today, this many researchers' values will change by the time AGI is developed.",null,"simulation weighted utility",{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H8,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,2,FALSE)","v":3.8399999999999992E+38},{"$f":"VLOOKUP(H8,'EV of Far Future'!$K$3:$M$14,3,FALSE)","v":4.6818248764342734}]
["cost to convince one AI researcher to care about animals",1000,100000]
["$1000/cost",{"$f":"1000/C9","v":0.01},{"$f":"1000/B9","v":1},{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B10,C10)","v":0.1},{"$f":"LogVariance(B10,C10)","v":0.78030414607237897},null,null,"hedonium utility estimate",{"$f":"D13*I3","v":1.4142135623730952E+45},{"$f":"E13+J3","v":3.7840732535075174}]
["Increased probability AGI is good for animals per $1000 spent",null,null,{"$f":"PRODUCT(D3:D8)*D10","v":1.5491933384829672E-7},{"$f":"SUM(E3:E8)+E10","v":2.489252642362584},null,null,"dolorium utility estimate",4.0000000000000004E+44,3.9015207303618951]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"factory farming utility estimate",5.4644157967709579E+33,2.7310645112533267]
["proportion of hedonium scenarios caused by making the FAI animal-friendly",0.01,0.05,{"$f":"GEOMEAN(B13,C13)","v":2.2360679774997897E-2},{"$f":"LogVariance(B13,C13)","v":0.27270459618181209},null,null,"wild vertebrate utility estimate",1.0240000000000001E+36,3.3561115379982707]
["dolorium scenarios prevented",0.01,0.1,3.1622776601683791E-2,0.39015207303618948,null,null,"insect utility estimate",1.6190861620062104E+39,3.7462636110344603]
["factory farming scenarios prevented",1,1,1,0,null,null,"simulation utility estimate",3.8399999999999994E+37,4.9167198301430277]
["wild vertebrate suffering prevented",0.1,0.4,0.2,0.23489495370875477,null,null,"sum 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["insect suffering prevented",0.05,0.2,0.1,0.23489495370875477,null,null,"exp mean/variance",{"$f":"STupidExcelMean(I16)","v":4.5107626437167748E+49},{"$f":"STupidExcelVariance(I16,I17)","v":6.9063207904531377E+107}]
["suffering simulations prevented",0.05,0.2,0.1,0.23489495370875477,null,null,"overall utility estimate",{"$f":"EXP(MuFromParams(ABS(I17),J17))","v":2.4483673318138147E+45},{"$f":"(SigmaFromParams(I17,J17) / LN(10))^2","v":3.7048562608731159}]
[]
[]
[]
["Results"]
["Total (Pareto posterior)",{"$f":"ParetoPosterior(median,alpha,I18:J18)","v":7.21322996525908E+36}]
["Total (log-normal posterior)",{"$f":"LognormPosterior(mu_far_future,sigma_far_future,I18:J18)","v":25902525.57153099}]