I stole the idea of confidence tags from Gwern. A confidence tag on an essay gives my subjective credence in the central thesis of that essay, using this spectrum of estimative terms:

  1. “almost certain”
  2. “highly likely”
  3. “likely”
  4. “somewhat likely”
  5. “possible”
  6. “somewhat unlikely”
  7. “unlikely”
  8. “highly unlikely”

These do not correspond to exact probabilities, but you could loosely interpret them like this:

  1. “almost certain”: >90%
  2. “highly likely”: 80–90%
  3. “likely”: 65–80%
  4. “somewhat likely”: 55–65%
  5. “possible”: 45–55%

And similarly for the terms below “possible”.