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Where I Am Donating In 2024
Outlive: A Critical Review
Obvious Investing Facts
Should Earners-to-Give Work at Startups Instead of Big Companies?
A Comparison of Donor-Advised Fund Providers
Investors Can Simulate Leverage via Concentrated Stock Selection
Asset Allocation and Leverage for Altruists with Constraints
The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset
Estimating the Philanthropic Discount Rate
All Expected Utility Distributions Have One of Two Big Problems
A Complete Quantitative Model for Cause Selection
GiveWell's Charity Recommendations Require Taking a Controversial Stance on Population Ethics
My Cause Selection 2015
Cause Prioritization
Do Protests Work? A Critical Review
Charity Cost-Effectiveness Really Does Follow a Power Law
"You can't calculate the expected utility of a communist revolution"
Thoughts on My Donation Process
Where I Am Donating in 2024
Where Some People Donated in 2017
Good Ventures/Open Phil Should Make Riskier Grants
Where I Am Donating in 2016
Is Preventing Global Poverty Good?
Why I'm Prioritizing Animal-Focused Values Spreading
Altruistic Organizations Should Consider Counterfactuals When Hiring
Why the Open Philanthropy Project Should Prioritize Wild Animal Suffering
Evaluation Frameworks (or: When Importance / Neglectedness / Tractability Doesn't Apply)
How Should a Large Donor Prioritize Cause Areas?
What Would Change My Mind About Where to Donate
Are GiveWell Top Charities Too Speculative?
More on REG's Room for More Funding
Response to the Global Priorities Project on Human and Animal Interventions
Cause Prioritization Research I Would Like to See
Excessive Optimism About Far Future Causes
My Cause Selection: Michael Dickens
Charities I Would Like to See
On Values Spreading
Some Writings on Cause Selection
Is Preventing Human Extinction Good?
Existential Risk
Why would AI companies use human-level AI to do alignment research?
Retroactive If-Then Commitments
Where I Am Donating in 2024
Existential Risk Reduction Is Naive (And That's a Good Thing)
How Do AI Timelines Affect Giving Now vs. Later?
"Disappointing Futures" Might Be As Important As Existential Risks
Giving Now vs. Later for Existential Risk: An Initial Approach
Should We Prioritize Long-Term Existential Risk?
The Importance of Unknown Existential Risks
Investing for Effective Altruists
Altruistic Investors Care About Other Altruists' Portfolios
Should Earners-to-Give Work at Startups Instead of Big Companies?
Low-Hanging (Monetary) Fruit for Wealthy EAs
Investment Strategies for Donor-Advised Funds
A Comparison of Donor-Advised Fund Providers
Asset Allocation and Leverage for Altruists with Constraints
Uncorrelated Investments for Altruists
Donor-Advised Funds vs. Taxable Accounts for Patient Donors
The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset
Do Theoretical Models Accurately Predict Optimal Leverage?
How Much Leverage Should Altruists Use?
Should Altruists Leverage Donations?
Why Effective Altruists Should Use a Robo-Advisor
Investing for Everyone
Return stacked funds: A new way to get leverage
A 401(k) Sometimes Isn't Worth It
Index Funds That Vote Are Active, Not Passive
How I Estimate Future Investment Returns
Obvious Investing Facts
More Evidence on Concentrated Stock Selection
The True Cost of Leveraged ETFs
Investors Can Simulate Leverage via Concentrated Stock Selection
Newcomb's Problem and Efficient Markets
Do Investors Put Too Much Stock in the US?
Quantitative Models
Philanthropists Probably Shouldn't Mission-Hedge AI Progress
A Preliminary Model of Mission-Correlated Investing
Quantifying the Far Future Effects of Interventions
A Complete Quantitative Model for Cause Selection
On Priors
Preventing Human Extinction, Now With Numbers!
Expected Value Estimates You Can (Maybe) Take Literally
How Valuable Are GiveWell Research Analysts?
Giving Now vs. Later
Should Patient Philanthropists Invest Differently?
Future Funding/Talent/Capacity Constraints Matter, Too
How Do AI Timelines Affect Giving Now vs. Later?
Metaculus Questions Suggest Money Will Do More Good in the Future
Reverse-Engineering the Philanthropic Discount Rate
Giving Now vs. Later for Existential Risk: An Initial Approach
Estimating the Philanthropic Discount Rate
Correction on Giving Now vs. Later
Should Global Poverty Donors Give Now or Later?
Why Do Small Donors Give Now, But Large Donors Give Later?
Mission-Correlated Investing
Philanthropists Probably Shouldn't Mission-Hedge AI Progress
A Preliminary Model of Mission-Correlated Investing
Mission Hedgers Want to Hedge Quantity, Not Price
Mission Hedging via Momentum Investing
Health & Fitness
Let's take a moment to marvel at how bad the original USDA food pyramid was
Can you maintain lean mass in a calorie deficit?
The Triple-Interaction-Effects Argument
I was probably wrong about HIIT and VO2max
The 7 Best High-Protein Breakfast Cereals
Outlive: A Critical Review
Protein Quality (DIAAS) Calculator
Continuing My Caffeine Self-Experiment
Notes on Eat, Drink, and Be Healthy
What's the Healthiest Body Composition?
What's the Healthiest BMI?
Caffeine Cycling Self-Experiment
Does Caffeine Stop Working?
Avoiding Caffeine Tolerance
Science
The Triple-Interaction-Effects Argument
There Are Three Kinds of "No Evidence"
Subjects in Pysch Studies Are More Rational Than Psychologists
My submission for Worst Argument In The World
How well did Scott Alexander's list of social science findings hold up?
Two Types of Scientific Misconceptions You Can Easily Disprove
High School Science Experiments
Why We Can See Stars
Philosophy
Utilitarianism Isn't About Doing Bad Things for the Greater Good. It's About Doing the Most Good
Two Types of Scientific Misconceptions You Can Easily Disprove
Are All Actions Impermissible Under Kantian Deontology?
All Expected Utility Distributions Have One of Two Big Problems
A Consciousness Decider Must Itself Be Conscious
Observations on Consciousness
Rationality
There Are Three Kinds of "No Evidence"
My submission for Worst Argument In The World
Just because a number is a rounding error doesn't mean it's not important
Some Things I've Changed My Mind On
Explicit Bayesian Reasoning: Don't Give Up So Easily
Do I Read My Own Citations?
Argumentative Tactics I Would Like to Stop Seeing
New Page: Convert Credences into a Bet
Other
You can now read my reading notes
I have whatever the opposite of a placebo effect is
The United States Is Weird
Most Theories Can't Explain Why Game of Thrones Went Downhill
The Review Service Vortex of Death
Can Good Writing Be Taught?
Summaries Are Important
My Experience Trying to Force Myself to Do Deep Work
What Are the Best TV Shows (According to IMDb Episode Ratings)?
New Comment System
Ideas Too Short for Essays
Songs of the Day
Robin Hanson Emulator
Meditations on Basic Income Guarantees
Haskell Is Actually Practical