"You can't calculate the expected utility of a communist revolution"
Posted on Dec 06, 2024
Thoughts on My Donation Process
Posted on Dec 04, 2024
Posted on Nov 18, 2024
Subjects in Pysch Studies Are More Rational Than Psychologists
Posted on Oct 15, 2024
My submission for Worst Argument In The World
Posted on Oct 12, 2024
Posted on Sep 26, 2024
I have whatever the opposite of a placebo effect is
Posted on Sep 02, 2024
Posted on Aug 29, 2024
Just because a number is a rounding error doesn't mean it's not important
Posted on Aug 02, 2024
A 401(k) Sometimes Isn't Worth It
Posted on Jul 24, 2024
Continuing My Caffeine Self-Experiment
Posted on Jun 24, 2024
Some Things I've Changed My Mind On
Posted on May 23, 2024
Notes on Eat, Drink, and Be Healthy
Posted on May 23, 2024
What's the Healthiest Body Composition?
Posted on May 22, 2024
Posted on May 05, 2024
Caffeine Cycling Self-Experiment
Posted on Apr 11, 2024
How well did Scott Alexander's list of social science findings hold up?
Posted on Apr 08, 2024
Explicit Bayesian Reasoning: Don't Give Up So Easily
Posted on Apr 03, 2024
Posted on Mar 29, 2024
Posted on Mar 02, 2024
Utilitarianism Isn't About Doing Bad Things for the Greater Good. It's About Doing the Most Good
Posted on Aug 15, 2023
Posted on Aug 15, 2023
Should Patient Philanthropists Invest Differently?
Posted on Sep 14, 2022
Two Types of Scientific Misconceptions You Can Easily Disprove
Posted on Sep 07, 2022
Most Theories Can't Explain Why Game of Thrones Went Downhill
Posted on Sep 05, 2022
Philanthropists Probably Shouldn't Mission-Hedge AI Progress
Posted on Aug 23, 2022
The Review Service Vortex of Death
Posted on Jun 20, 2022
Index Funds That Vote Are Active, Not Passive
Posted on Apr 20, 2022
A Preliminary Model of Mission-Correlated Investing
Posted on Apr 04, 2022
How I Estimate Future Investment Returns
Posted on Apr 01, 2022
Posted on Mar 22, 2022
Existential Risk Reduction Is Naive (And That's a Good Thing)
Posted on Mar 18, 2022
Altruistic Investors Care About Other Altruists' Portfolios
Posted on Mar 18, 2022
Should Earners-to-Give Work at Startups Instead of Big Companies?
Posted on Nov 12, 2021
Posted on Oct 29, 2021
Future Funding/Talent/Capacity Constraints Matter, Too
Posted on Oct 18, 2021
Low-Hanging (Monetary) Fruit for Wealthy EAs
Posted on Oct 16, 2021
Posted on Oct 08, 2021
Posted on Oct 04, 2021
Argumentative Tactics I Would Like to Stop Seeing
Posted on Oct 04, 2021
My Experience Trying to Force Myself to Do Deep Work
Posted on Aug 23, 2021
Mission Hedgers Want to Hedge Quantity, Not Price
Posted on Aug 18, 2021
How Do AI Timelines Affect Giving Now vs. Later?
Posted on Aug 02, 2021
Metaculus Questions Suggest Money Will Do More Good in the Future
Posted on Jul 21, 2021
Reverse-Engineering the Philanthropic Discount Rate
Posted on Jul 09, 2021
How Can We Increase the Frequency of Rare Insights?
Posted on Apr 19, 2021
Investment Strategies for Donor-Advised Funds
Posted on Apr 06, 2021
A Comparison of Donor-Advised Fund Providers
Posted on Apr 05, 2021
More Evidence on Concentrated Stock Selection
Posted on Apr 01, 2021
The True Cost of Leveraged ETFs
Posted on Mar 04, 2021
Investors Can Simulate Leverage via Concentrated Stock Selection
Posted on Feb 08, 2021
Asset Allocation and Leverage for Altruists with Constraints
Posted on Dec 14, 2020
Uncorrelated Investments for Altruists
Posted on Nov 23, 2020
Posted on Nov 23, 2020
Donor-Advised Funds vs. Taxable Accounts for Patient Donors
Posted on Oct 19, 2020
The Risk of Concentrating Wealth in a Single Asset
Posted on Oct 18, 2020
"Disappointing Futures" Might Be As Important As Existential Risks
Posted on Sep 02, 2020
Mission Hedging via Momentum Investing
Posted on Sep 01, 2020
Giving Now vs. Later for Existential Risk: An Initial Approach
Posted on Aug 28, 2020
Should We Prioritize Long-Term Existential Risk?
Posted on Aug 19, 2020
The Importance of Unknown Existential Risks
Posted on Jul 23, 2020
Estimating the Philanthropic Discount Rate
Posted on Jul 03, 2020
Do Theoretical Models Accurately Predict Optimal Leverage?
Posted on Jun 21, 2020
How Much Leverage Should Altruists Use?
Posted on Jan 06, 2020
Correction on Giving Now vs. Later
Posted on Jan 04, 2020
Are All Actions Impermissible Under Kantian Deontology?
Posted on Dec 30, 2019
New Page: Convert Credences into a Bet
Posted on Sep 07, 2019
What Are the Best TV Shows (According to IMDb Episode Ratings)?
Posted on Jul 20, 2019
High School Science Experiments
Posted on Jun 08, 2019
How Can Donors Incentivize Good Predictions on Important but Unpopular Topics?
Posted on Feb 02, 2019
Should Global Poverty Donors Give Now or Later?
Posted on Jan 21, 2019
Why Do Small Donors Give Now, But Large Donors Give Later?
Posted on Oct 20, 2018
Where Some People Donated in 2017
Posted on Feb 11, 2018
Newcomb's Problem and Efficient Markets
Posted on Jan 23, 2018
All Expected Utility Distributions Have One of Two Big Problems
Posted on Nov 04, 2017
Posted on Sep 17, 2017
An Idea for How Large Donors Can Support Small Charities
Posted on Apr 02, 2017
Do Investors Put Too Much Stock in the US?
Posted on Mar 26, 2017
Posted on Dec 29, 2016
Good Ventures/Open Phil Should Make Riskier Grants
Posted on Dec 08, 2016
Posted on Oct 31, 2016
Dedicated Donors May Not Want to Sign the Giving What We Can Pledge
Posted on Oct 29, 2016
Is Preventing Global Poverty Good?
Posted on Oct 28, 2016
Why I'm Prioritizing Animal-Focused Values Spreading
Posted on Sep 10, 2016
Altruistic Organizations Should Consider Counterfactuals When Hiring
Posted on Sep 10, 2016
Why the Open Philanthropy Project Should Prioritize Wild Animal Suffering
Posted on Aug 25, 2016
Evaluation Frameworks (or: When Importance / Neglectedness / Tractability Doesn't Apply)
Posted on Jun 10, 2016
Quantifying the Far Future Effects of Interventions
Posted on May 17, 2016
A Complete Quantitative Model for Cause Selection
Posted on May 17, 2016
GiveWell's Charity Recommendations Require Taking a Controversial Stance on Population Ethics
Posted on May 16, 2016
Posted on May 13, 2016
Posted on Apr 26, 2016
How Should a Large Donor Prioritize Cause Areas?
Posted on Apr 25, 2016
How Sentient Are Farm Animals?
Posted on Apr 24, 2016
The Myth that Reducing Wild Animal Suffering Is Intractable
Posted on Apr 22, 2016
Preventing Human Extinction, Now With Numbers!
Posted on Apr 17, 2016
Expected Value Estimates You Can (Maybe) Take Literally
Posted on Apr 06, 2016
What Would Change My Mind About Where to Donate
Posted on Mar 04, 2016
How Valuable Are GiveWell Research Analysts?
Posted on Feb 13, 2016
Are GiveWell Top Charities Too Speculative?
Posted on Dec 20, 2015
Feedback Loops for Values Spreading
Posted on Dec 19, 2015
More on REG's Room for More Funding
Posted on Nov 16, 2015
Response to the Global Priorities Project on Human and Animal Interventions
Posted on Nov 03, 2015
Cause Prioritization Research I Would Like to See
Posted on Nov 02, 2015
Excessive Optimism About Far Future Causes
Posted on Oct 31, 2015
A Consciousness Decider Must Itself Be Conscious
Posted on Oct 29, 2015
Posted on Oct 22, 2015
Should Altruists Leverage Donations?
Posted on Oct 17, 2015
My Cause Selection: Michael Dickens
Posted on Sep 15, 2015
Posted on Sep 12, 2015
Posted on Sep 10, 2015
Some Writings on Cause Selection
Posted on Sep 08, 2015
Is Preventing Human Extinction Good?
Posted on Aug 15, 2015
Why Effective Altruists Should Use a Robo-Advisor
Posted on Jul 22, 2015
Posted on Jul 09, 2015
Meditations on Basic Income Guarantees
Posted on Jan 25, 2015
Posted on Dec 16, 2013
Posted on Dec 17, 2012
Posted on Aug 04, 2012
Free Will, Moral Responsibility, and Justice
Posted on Jul 30, 2012
Posted on Jun 18, 2012
Posted on May 30, 2012
Posted on May 22, 2012
Posted on Mar 20, 2012
Utilitarianism in Five Minutes
Posted on Jan 11, 2012
On the Moral Obligation to Prevent Suffering
Posted on Aug 09, 2011
Posted on Jun 16, 2011
Using Utilitarianism to Argue Against Utilitarianism
Posted on Jun 13, 2011
Posted on Sep 19, 2010